🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."